Reducing Contrails: A Promising Solution to Combat Aviation's Climate Impact

Breakthrough Energy and Google collaborate to develop a groundbreaking solution to reduce contrails and combat aviation's contribution to climate change.

Introduction: Aviation is a significant contributor to climate change, with emissions from airplanes responsible for about 3.5% of human-caused global warming. However, it's not just the byproducts of burning jet fuel that pose a problem. Airliners also leave behind contrails, which are artificial clouds formed by ice crystals and particles in the planes' exhaust. These contrails trap heat in the Earth's atmosphere, exacerbating global warming. The good news is that reducing contrails could be a low-cost and highly effective way to slow down climate change. Researchers at Breakthrough Energy and Google have identified this as the "highest-leverage climate opportunity" and are working on a solution to address it.

The Science Behind Contrail Control

The science of contrail control dates back to the 1940s when efforts were made to build stealthier military aircraft. By the 1990s, scientists had realized that cirrus clouds, similar to aircraft contrails, play a significant role in heating the atmosphere. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated that contrails represent about 35% of the aviation industry's contribution to global warming.

Utilizing Satellite Observation and Machine Learning

Breakthrough Energy and Google's Research division have developed models to predict where contrails will form by using data from NASA's GOES-16 weather satellite and other weather indicators. Machine learning algorithms were trained to recognize contrails in the data set and predict future contrail-conducive regions.

Testing and Results

To test the effectiveness of their solution, American Airlines collaborated with Breakthrough Energy and Google. The predictions were integrated into pilots' flight planning software, and over the course of 70 flights, modified and standard routes were flown to create useful comparisons. Satellite data analysis after the flights revealed a 54% reduction in contrail creation.

Challenges and Considerations

While reducing contrails is a promising solution, there are still challenges to overcome. Additional maneuvering to avoid contrail-conducive regions increased American Airlines' fuel usage by about 2%, which is a significant concern for airlines. The overall climate benefits of avoiding contrails must outweigh the additional emissions. Furthermore, the impact on air traffic and coordination with air traffic controllers need to be addressed.

Expanding the Solution and Future Plans

The three organizations involved are planning to expand the experiments and involve other airlines and air traffic control organizations, particularly focusing on night flights in low-density airspace. Nighttime contrails have a more significant warming effect. Deploying this technology across airlines is relatively straightforward, but the impact on air traffic management needs careful consideration. Conclusion: Reducing contrails presents a promising opportunity to combat aviation's contribution to climate change. Breakthrough Energy and Google's collaborative efforts have shown significant success in reducing contrail creation. While challenges remain, the potential to reduce approximately 1% of human contribution to global warming is within reach. Further research and collaboration are needed to refine the solution and ensure its commercial viability. As the aviation industry strives to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, addressing the impact of contrails is a crucial step towards a more sustainable future.